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Tesla’s launch of Model Y RWD is the nail in the coffin at the worst time for legacy auto
Tesla’s launch of the Model Y Rear-Wheel-Drive (RWD) comes at perhaps the worst time for legacy automotive companies. It is affordable, comparable to similar models from competitors, and is perhaps the nail in the coffin, especially for the U.S. market, as it is an affordable car that features some of the best add-ons that EV buyers could need.
Last night, Tesla launched the Model Y RWD on its website, and with federal and local incentives, it could cost buyers under $31,000 as it qualifies for the full EV tax credit from the government. Packing the LFP, or lithium iron phosphate battery pack, Tesla has brought its most popular car to an affordable level with reasonable range ratings and more than acceptable performance metrics.
While it was a timely offering in terms of Tesla’s trek for 1.8 million deliveries this year after a lackluster Q3 due to factory upgrades that required production pauses, this vehicle offers the automaker two things:
- A new mode of demand for the Model Y, especially in the U.S. market, where it has already been extremely popular
- Another edge over the already-frustrated competition, which is falling further behind due to a number of factors, and has already thrown in the towel to Tesla and will use its Superchargers next year because developing infrastructure is difficult
Of course, the Model Y RWD is not the best crossover out there. We would likely reserve this for the Long Range version of the Model Y, which offers more travel distance per charge and better performance metrics.
That’s not to say that the Model Y RWD is something worth overlooking because, for many, it is the answer to the question they’ve had: how will I put the most popular EV in the U.S. in my driveway for roughly $35,000?
This was Tesla’s answer.
Obviously, there is no shortage of people who are at least thinking about buying an EV. Recent figures have shown that Tesla commands the U.S. EV market by a considerable margin, and although it seems there is still plenty of demand for its vehicles in the North American market, Tesla still has to find ways to cater to customers who need certain vehicles at certain price points.
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The Long Range Model Y is an ideal car for most people and families. Crossovers are an extremely sought-after body style in this market, but they come at a price. Give someone who needs a crossover EV at a price they cannot pass up and pack on the world’s most expansive charging network on top of it, and it is simply not a matter of whether people will buy it. It’s a matter of when, and how many will be bought.
It is no secret that people may be somewhat worried that Tesla may not reach its 1.8 million unit delivery goal for the year. Even with the Model 3+, or Highland, whatever you want to call it, starting deliveries this month in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East and the Cybertruck likely beginning deliveries soon, there still needs to be some movement in the U.S. market.
Cybertruck deliveries are likely going to be somewhat small for the last quarter of the year, and Highland will contribute plenty of units to the Q4 figures, but the U.S. is still where Tesla dominates the most, but neither of these vehicles are available here yet.
Enter the Model Y RWD as the nail in the coffin for companies that are either striking due to UAW demands for better wages and benefits, or are struggling with EV software and quality, or just an overall lack of awareness in terms of the auto market.
Yes, there are some people out there that have no interest in an EV. However, there are plenty that are. Ford, GM, and Stellantis are not building any in the U.S. currently because of the UAW strike, Volkswagen may have some things to offer, but it hasn’t chosen to adopt the NACS charging connector to gain access to the Supercharger network. Hyundai is still early in its EV venture, and the IONIQ is certainly an attractive option, but the Model Y RWD will trump it because of its price and Tesla’s overall advantages, including charging and overall EV prowess.
We have talked plenty about nails in the coffin for EV makers before, but with a new demand trigger with the Model Y RWD for Tesla and Detroit pausing EV production while the terms of a new UAW contract get worked out, this is spelling nothing but trouble for Tesla’s competitors.
The Model Y RWD has opened a new can of worms for competitors to try and combat. Right now, at least in the U.S., it’s Tesla’s world, and competitors are just living in it.
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Elon Musk
SpaceX’s next trillion dollar bet has nothing to do with rockets, Musk tells staff
Elon Musk told SpaceX staff AI revenue will soon dwarf rockets and Starlink combined entirely.
Elon Musk told SpaceX employees this week that artificial intelligence, not rockets, will soon carry the company’s revenue. In a roughly 29 minute internal address posted on SpaceX’s X account on Tuesday, Musk said AI revenue will pass every other line of business at SpaceX “probably in September” and pull further ahead by the fourth quarter.
The numbers he gave are specific. SpaceX currently runs 1.4 gigawatts of AI compute capacity. Musk wants that at 10 gigawatts by the end of 2027, a jump he tied directly to revenue: “if we bring 10GW of AI online by the end of next year, it will be $300 billion to $500 billion a year in revenue.” He called those “big numbers,” which undersells a projection larger than what most countries produce in a year.
We made rockets reusable and are rebuilding the internet in space. The next challenge: making life multiplanetary and understanding the true nature of the universe
Watch @ElonMusk deliver a company update to @SpaceX employees pic.twitter.com/5c8rxoCQfu
— SpaceX (@SpaceX) August 11, 2026
Musk went further on where AI fits into SpaceX’s future. “Probably in four or five years, AI will be 99% of the value of SpaceX,” he told staff, adding that digital intelligence would eventually run “a trillion times” ahead of biological intelligence as computing scales. He tied that growth to the company’s founding mission, telling employees “we must win on AI, because the future is overwhelmingly AI and robots,” with the payoff meant to help fund Starship and a Mars program that increasingly runs through Terafab, the joint Tesla, SpaceX and xAI chip plant.
Elon Musk launches TERAFAB: The $25B Tesla-SpaceXAI chip factory that will rewire the AI industry
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None of this is entirely new territory. SpaceX told investors much the same story during its first earnings call as a public company on August 4, where Musk moved the company’s $1 trillion revenue target up a year to 2030 and said Starlink could someday carry a majority of the world’s internet. What the all hands video adds is a hard deadline and a specific power figure Musk had not given publicly before, along with a franker pitch to his own workforce that AI, not launch cadence, is now the thing SpaceX is betting its future on.
The AI revenue itself is not coming from SpaceX training its own models. It is largely Starlink acting as the network layer for xAI’s workloads, plus SpaceX renting out compute capacity directly, the same approach behind the roughly $16 billion the company spent on AI infrastructure in a single quarter.
Musk closed the video with a pitch aimed at recruiting and retention rather than investors, telling employees that anyone who helps SpaceX win the AI race will eventually get the chance to go to the moon or Mars themselves. Whether SpaceX can turn 1.4 gigawatts into 10 in seventeen months is the more immediate question, and one that will show up in quarterly numbers well before anyone leaves Earth.
In a new note to investors on Tuesday, Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco said that Tesla has one big financial question to answer for investors regarding its Robotaxi rollout, Full Self-Driving software, and Optimus.
Percoco said in the note that, for the most part, investors are still very positive about the direction the company is headed. However, there are some things the firm would like to see, and they have to do with financials.
Tesla (TSLA) Q2 2026 earnings results: miss on EPS, beat on revenue
Tesla bulls are more than convinced that the company’s Full Self-Driving software is proof it can develop physical AI. Financially, however, there are still some questions, especially on elevated spending, which CEO Elon Musk said would occur as the company works to roll out Robotaxi faster and continue developing its Optimus robot.
The latter two are where Tesla will have to prove progress to investors, as Percoco writes that both projects “will require clearer evidence that Robotaxi is scaling and more tangible Optimus proof points to support the ROI on elevated capex.”
Percoco said the second quarter earnings call did not change his long-term thesis of where Tesla is positioned in the AI race, which is out in front. However, there are concerns that weaker gross margins and higher R&D spend will stress financials, and that has “sharpened our (and investors’) focus on measurable progress across Robotaxi and Optimus.”
Additionally, Robotaxi still needs to be proven with more operation in existing cities while maintaining safety but improving how many rides it gives in any given time, he said. For Optimus, Percoco wrote that he is “still looking for evidence beyond commentary around SOP.”
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Morgan Stanley put Percoco in charge of covering Tesla after long-time analyst Adam Jonas transitioned to the automotive side.
Currently, Morgan Stanley has a $415 price target on Tesla and a ‘Hold’ rating on the stock. It is trading at around $330 at the time of publication, which was 2:30 P.M. on the East Coast.
SpaceX’s massive investment in AI will make it a big winner, Argus Research said after the company’s successful earnings call last week.
The firm also upgraded shares to a Buy from Hold and set a $160 price target.
SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) is currently recovering from its heavy AI infrastructure investments, as it spent nearly $16 billion in Q2 alone. The company did this primarily by monetizing high-demand GPU compute capacity at a much faster pace than traditional data center economics would suggest.
Company CFO Bret Johnsen said that SpaceX would be able to pay back anything on new deployments within a year.
There are plenty of ways the company can do this:
Leasing excess compute capacity through contracts
SpaceX has already built Colossus and Colossus II, largely for its own model training. However, much of that capacity is already rented out to third parties. It already has major deals with Anthropic, Google, and Reflection AI. These partnerships are adding billions per month to SpaceX’s spreadsheet.
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High utilization driven by industry-wide scarcity
The demand for advanced AI training and inference capacity continues to exceed what is available for use. SpaceX can fill new racks quickly after they come online, so the capital deployed converts into revenue with minimal idle time.
Additionally, management and outside observers have described the new compute capital as behaving more like a cost-of-goods-sold than traditional multi-year capex, especially because of this rapid monetization pattern.
Capacity has already scaled from ~0.4 GW a year to 1.4 GW annually by the end of Q2. There are targets of more than 2 GW by year-end.
High incremental margins on the rental business once capacity is online
GPU cloud providers often operate at strong gross margins. SpaceX can monetize capacity that was already partially built or can be added efficiently. This means that incremental EBITDA margins on the rental revenue are usually high. This accelerates cash recovery relative to the gross capital outlay.
Parallel monetization of its own AI software and applications
Beyond pure infrastructure rental, SpaceX also generates revenue from Grok through subscriptions and usage, from X through ads, data, and other related services, enterprise APIs, and the planned integration of the Cursor coding tools acquisition.
These application layers ride on the same compute infrastructure and provide additional high-margin streams that could offset build-out costs. AI-segment revenue overall rose sharply to about $2.6 billion in Q2, according to Motley Fool. This was driven primarily by the infrastructure contracts, but the software side is also partially responsible.
Efficient, large-scale deployment and vertical integration advantages
SpaceX has emphasized the rapid construction of power and cooling infrastructure and favorable cost-per-megawatt economics relative to industry benchmarks in some disclosures.
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Combined with its ability to scale capacity aggressively and the fact that many contracts start generating revenue within months of capacity coming online, the effective payback compresses dramatically compared with more conventional multi-year data-center projects.
SpaceX’s dominant near-term recovery path will turn the AI clusters into a hyperscale-style compute rental business for other leading AI companies while still using a portion for internal models.
SpaceX’s next trillion dollar bet has nothing to do with rockets, Musk tells staff
Tesla has one big financial question to answer for investors: Morgan Stanley
