Tesla and other companies are actively developing self-driving technologies and driverless ride-hailing platforms, and with President-elect Donald Trump’s transition team already focused on autonomous vehicles, the tech is highly expected to be a major theme in 2025.
According to a Reuters Breakingviews prediction report on Monday, Trump’s moves to minimize regulations surrounding autonomous vehicles and create a federal framework for the technology are expected to supercharge the industry—as increased competition emerges in the U.S. and beyond.
With Tesla CEO Elon Musk also set to play a large role in Trump’s administration, heading up the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), the company’s own developments in the sector could also stand to benefit substantially. Reuters also predicts that self-driving pilots could expand under the administration, especially as developers aim to increase the amount of data used to train their systems.
READ MORE ON SELF-DRIVING REGULATIONS: U.S. agency proposes rules for self-driving vehicle incident reporting
Last month, the Trump transition team said that it was already aiming to create a federal self-driving vehicle framework. Additionally, the team earlier this month was reported to be ditching federal requirements on automated driving tech crash reporting, coming as one example of the administration’s aims to streamline regulatory processes in the industry.
Internationally, the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) categorizes vehicle automation into five automation levels, which are generally adopted in conversations about robotaxis in the U.S. market as well. You can see these categories below, with Level 3 and above generally considered to be full automation, at least at times, while Level 2 and below are considered partial automation.
Credit: SAE International
According to the data firm Canalys, just 5.5 percent of vehicles sold this year have included Level 2 or more assistance features, such as cruise control and automated lane changes. By 2025, however, Citi research has suggested that models in China below 200,000 yuan (about $28,000) will have these features, playing a major role in consumer demand.
In China, at least 19 companies are currently testing fully autonomous vehicles, and Goldman Sachs expects the country to see as many as 90 percent of consumer sales to have features of Level 3 autonomy or greaterby 2040, compared to just 65 percent in the U.S.
While these technologies are emerging, McKinsey predicts that self-driving could become a $400 billion industry by 2035. Google parent company Alphabet runs Waymo, a Level 4 driverless ride-hailing service that already offers paid rides, while others, including Pony AI and Baidu also offer rentable self-driving vehicles in select areas.
BYD has invested $14 billion into self-driving, Toyota has around 1.7 trillion yen ($11.3 billion) going toward software, while Volkswagen has invested $700 million into China’s Xpeng Motors. Li Auto and Xiami are also considered potential competitors in these spaces, and 2025 could prove a big year for commercial self-driving hopefuls.
Tesla’s Supervised FSD program, Cybercab unveiled
Meanwhile, Tesla isn’t yet operating a paid ride-hailing service, though it gathers data through owner use of its Supervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) software. Tesla has touted the potential scalability of its Supervised FSD in the past, given that it’s available at least in some form in all of the company’s vehicles.
Musk has also regularly talked about a future in which owners of its vehicles could use an Unsupervised FSD to generate money by giving robotaxi rides while not normally in use.
On that theme, Tesla unveiled the Cybercab in October, a fully autonomous, two-seat vehicle with no pedals, set to eventually make it to the market as a driverless ride-hailing vehicle. It’s also set to be equipped with wireless charging and make use of an automated cleaning robot, offering top-to-bottom autonomy for owners.
MORE ON FSD SUPERVISED: Watch Tesla’s FSD v13.2 navigate away from park in a tricky situation
Tesla skeptics, Waymo’s driverless ride-hails, GM’s Cruise drives into the sunset
Despite the unveiling, some have shared skepticism around how long the vehicles could take to reach the market, especially given that production isn’t set to begin until 2026 with commercial deliveries aiming for “before 2027,” according to Musk during the October 10 “We, Robot” unveiling event.
On Monday, analyst Gary Black also predicted that fewer than 50 percent of Tesla owners would join the company’s robotaxi fleet, while a Guggenheim researcher in October said Tesla was “extremely unlikely” to reveal a credible path to robotaxi commercialization in the next 12 to 24 months.
Others like Waymo are some of the first companies operating paid driverless ride-hails, and the Google-run firm said in August that its robotaxis were already giving 100,000 paid self-driving rides per week. Meanwhile, General Motors (GM) announced this month that it will officially end funding for its commercial self-driving arm Cruise, after one of the company’s driverless vehicles last year ran over and pinned a pedestrian in San Francisco.
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Tesla CEO Elon Musk shaded Waymo in a post on X on Wednesday, stating the company “never really had a chance” and that it “will be obvious in hindsight.”
Tesla and Waymo are the two primary contributors to the self-driving efforts in the United States, with both operating driverless ride-hailing services in the country. Tesla does have a Safety Monitor present in its vehicles in Austin, Texas, and someone in the driver’s seat in its Bay Area operation.
Musk says the Austin operation will be completely void of any Safety Monitors by the end of the year.
🚨 Tesla vs. Waymo Geofence in Austin https://t.co/A6ffPtp5xv pic.twitter.com/mrnL0YNSn4
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) December 10, 2025
With the two companies being the main members of the driverless movement in the U.S., there is certainly a rivalry. The two have sparred back and forth with their geofences, or service areas, in both Austin and the Bay Area.
While that is a metric for comparison now, ultimately, it will not matter in the coming years, as the two companies will likely operate in a similar fashion.
Waymo has geared its business toward larger cities, and Tesla has said that its self-driving efforts will expand to every single one of its vehicles in any location globally. This is where the true difference between the two lies, along with the fact that Tesla uses its own vehicles, while Waymo has several models in its lineup from different manufacturers.
The two also have different ideas on how to solve self-driving, as Tesla uses a vision-only approach. Waymo relies on several things, including LiDAR, which Musk once called “a fool’s errand.”
This is where Tesla sets itself apart from the competition, and Musk highlighted the company’s position against Waymo.
Jeff Dean, the Chief Scientist for Google DeepMind, said on X:
“I don’t think Tesla has anywhere near the volume of rider-only autonomous miles that Waymo has (96M for Waymo, as of today). The safety data is quite compelling for Waymo, as well.”
Musk replied:
“Waymo never really had a chance against Tesla. This will be obvious in hindsight.”
Waymo never really had a chance against Tesla. This will be obvious in hindsight.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 10, 2025
Tesla stands to have a much larger fleet of vehicles in the coming years if it chooses to activate Robotaxi services with all passenger vehicles. A simple Over-the-Air update will activate this capability, while Waymo would likely be confined to the vehicles it commissions as Robotaxis.
News
Tesla supplier Samsung preps for AI5 production with latest move
According to a new report from Sedaily, Samsung is accelerating its preparation for U.S. production of the AI5 chips by hiring veteran engineers for its Customer Engineering team.
Tesla supplier Samsung is preparing to manufacture the AI5 chip, which will launch the company’s self-driving efforts even further, with its latest move.
According to a new report from Sedaily, Samsung is accelerating its preparation for U.S. production of the AI5 chips by hiring veteran engineers for its Customer Engineering team, which will help resolve complex foundry challenges, stabilize production and yields, and ensure manufacturing goes smoothly for the new project.
The hiring push signals that Tesla’s AI5 project is moving forward quickly at Samsung, which was one of two suppliers to win a contract order from the world’s leading EV maker.
🚨🚨 FIRST LOOK at Tesla’s AI5 chip, which will be available in late 2026 or early 2027 pic.twitter.com/aLomUuifhT
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) November 6, 2025
TSMC is the other. TSMC is using its 3nm process, reportedly, while Samsung will do a 2nm as a litmus test for the process.
The different versions are due to the fact that “they translate designs to physical form differently,” CEO Elon Musk said recently. The goal is for the two to operate identically, obviously, which is a challenge.
Some might remember Apple’s A9 “Chipgate” saga, which found that the chips differed in performance because of different manufacturers.
The AI5 chip is Tesla’s next-generation hardware chip for its self-driving program, but it will also contribute to the Optimus program and other AI-driven features in both vehicles and other projects. Currently, Tesla utilizes AI4, formerly known as HW4 or Hardware 4, in its vehicles.
Tesla teases new AI5 chip that will revolutionize self-driving
AI5 is specialized for use by Tesla as it will work in conjunction with the company’s Neural Networks, focusing on real-time inference to make safe and logical decisions during operation.
Musk said it was an “amazing design” and an “immense jump” from Tesla’s current AI4 chip. It will be roughly 40 times faster, and have 8 times the raw compute, with 9 times the memory capacity. It is also expected to be three times as efficient per watt as AI4.
“We’re going to focus TSMC and Samsung, initially, on AI5. The AI5 chip, design by Tesla, it’s an amazing design. I’ve spent almost every weekend for the last few months with the chip team working on AI5.”
It will be 40x better than the AI4 chip, Musk says.
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) October 22, 2025
AI5 will make its way into “maybe a small number of units” next year, Musk confirmed. However, it will not make its way to high-volume production until 2027. AI5 is not the last step, either, as Musk has already confirmed AI6 would likely enter production in mid-2028.
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Tesla discloses interesting collaboration partner for Supercharging
This BOXABL collaboration would be a great way to add a rest stop to a rural Supercharging location, and could lead to more of these chargers across the U.S.
Tesla disclosed an interesting collaboration partner in an SEC filing, which looks like an indication of a potential project at Supercharger sites.
Tesla said on Tuesday in the filing that it was entering an agreement with BOXABL to design and build a Micromenity structure. Simply put, this is a modular building, usually a few hundred square feet in size, and it has been seen at Superchargers in Europe.
In Magnant, France, Tesla opened a small building at a Supercharger that is available to all EV owners. There are snacks and drinks inside, including ice cream, coffee, a gaming console, and restrooms. It gives people an opportunity to get up and out of their cars while charging.
This building was not built by BOXABL, but instead by bk World Lounges. It is likely the final Supercharging stop before people get to Paris, as it is located 250 kilometers, or 155 miles, from the City of Light.
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Magnant has 56 stalls, so it is a large Supercharging stop compared to most. The building could be a sign of things to come, especially as Tesla has opened up larger Supercharger stations along major roadways.
It is for just a single building, as the Scope of Work within the filing states “a comprehensive package for one Micromenity building.”
NEWS: BOXABL, a company that creates modular, prefabricated buildings, has entered into an agreement with @Tesla.
This is Tesla formally contracting BOXABL to design, engineer, and build a pilot “Micromenity” structure, a compact, modular building unit.
While some info in the… pic.twitter.com/RabJczGpEp
— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) December 9, 2025
Superchargers are commonly located at gas stations, shopping centers, and other major points of interest. However, there are some stops that are isolated from retail or entertainment.
This BOXABL collaboration would be a great way to add a rest stop to a rural Supercharging location, and could lead to more of these chargers across the U.S.
Tesla has done a lot of really great things for Supercharging this year.
Along with widespread expansion, the company launched the “Charging Passport” this week, opened the largest Supercharger in the world in Lost Hills, California, with 168 chargers, opened the Tesla Diner, a drive-in movie restaurant in Los Angeles, and initiated access to the infrastructure to even more automakers.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk shades Waymo: ‘Never really had a chance’
Tesla supplier Samsung preps for AI5 production with latest move
