Tesla and other companies are actively developing self-driving technologies and driverless ride-hailing platforms, and with President-elect Donald Trump’s transition team already focused on autonomous vehicles, the tech is highly expected to be a major theme in 2025.
According to a Reuters Breakingviews prediction report on Monday, Trump’s moves to minimize regulations surrounding autonomous vehicles and create a federal framework for the technology are expected to supercharge the industry—as increased competition emerges in the U.S. and beyond.
With Tesla CEO Elon Musk also set to play a large role in Trump’s administration, heading up the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), the company’s own developments in the sector could also stand to benefit substantially. Reuters also predicts that self-driving pilots could expand under the administration, especially as developers aim to increase the amount of data used to train their systems.
READ MORE ON SELF-DRIVING REGULATIONS: U.S. agency proposes rules for self-driving vehicle incident reporting
Last month, the Trump transition team said that it was already aiming to create a federal self-driving vehicle framework. Additionally, the team earlier this month was reported to be ditching federal requirements on automated driving tech crash reporting, coming as one example of the administration’s aims to streamline regulatory processes in the industry.
Internationally, the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) categorizes vehicle automation into five automation levels, which are generally adopted in conversations about robotaxis in the U.S. market as well. You can see these categories below, with Level 3 and above generally considered to be full automation, at least at times, while Level 2 and below are considered partial automation.
Credit: SAE International
According to the data firm Canalys, just 5.5 percent of vehicles sold this year have included Level 2 or more assistance features, such as cruise control and automated lane changes. By 2025, however, Citi research has suggested that models in China below 200,000 yuan (about $28,000) will have these features, playing a major role in consumer demand.
In China, at least 19 companies are currently testing fully autonomous vehicles, and Goldman Sachs expects the country to see as many as 90 percent of consumer sales to have features of Level 3 autonomy or greaterby 2040, compared to just 65 percent in the U.S.
While these technologies are emerging, McKinsey predicts that self-driving could become a $400 billion industry by 2035. Google parent company Alphabet runs Waymo, a Level 4 driverless ride-hailing service that already offers paid rides, while others, including Pony AI and Baidu also offer rentable self-driving vehicles in select areas.
BYD has invested $14 billion into self-driving, Toyota has around 1.7 trillion yen ($11.3 billion) going toward software, while Volkswagen has invested $700 million into China’s Xpeng Motors. Li Auto and Xiami are also considered potential competitors in these spaces, and 2025 could prove a big year for commercial self-driving hopefuls.
Tesla’s Supervised FSD program, Cybercab unveiled
Meanwhile, Tesla isn’t yet operating a paid ride-hailing service, though it gathers data through owner use of its Supervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) software. Tesla has touted the potential scalability of its Supervised FSD in the past, given that it’s available at least in some form in all of the company’s vehicles.
Musk has also regularly talked about a future in which owners of its vehicles could use an Unsupervised FSD to generate money by giving robotaxi rides while not normally in use.
On that theme, Tesla unveiled the Cybercab in October, a fully autonomous, two-seat vehicle with no pedals, set to eventually make it to the market as a driverless ride-hailing vehicle. It’s also set to be equipped with wireless charging and make use of an automated cleaning robot, offering top-to-bottom autonomy for owners.
MORE ON FSD SUPERVISED: Watch Tesla’s FSD v13.2 navigate away from park in a tricky situation
Tesla skeptics, Waymo’s driverless ride-hails, GM’s Cruise drives into the sunset
Despite the unveiling, some have shared skepticism around how long the vehicles could take to reach the market, especially given that production isn’t set to begin until 2026 with commercial deliveries aiming for “before 2027,” according to Musk during the October 10 “We, Robot” unveiling event.
On Monday, analyst Gary Black also predicted that fewer than 50 percent of Tesla owners would join the company’s robotaxi fleet, while a Guggenheim researcher in October said Tesla was “extremely unlikely” to reveal a credible path to robotaxi commercialization in the next 12 to 24 months.
Others like Waymo are some of the first companies operating paid driverless ride-hails, and the Google-run firm said in August that its robotaxis were already giving 100,000 paid self-driving rides per week. Meanwhile, General Motors (GM) announced this month that it will officially end funding for its commercial self-driving arm Cruise, after one of the company’s driverless vehicles last year ran over and pinned a pedestrian in San Francisco.
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What are your thoughts? Let me know at zach@teslarati.com, find me on X at @zacharyvisconti, or send us tips at tips@teslarati.com.
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News
Tesla Robotaxi wins over firm that said it was ‘likely to disappoint’
Tesla Robotaxi recently won over a Wall Street firm that had recently said the platform was “likely to disappoint.”

Tesla Robotaxi recently won over a Wall Street firm that had recently said the platform was “likely to disappoint.” The ride-hailing service has been operating for about a month, and driverless rides have been offered to a small group of people that continues to expand nearly every day.
JPMorgan went to Austin to test the Tesla Robotaxi platform, and it did so just a few weeks after listing Tesla as one of its “six stocks to short” in 2025. Highlighting the loss of the EV tax credit and labeling the Robotaxi initiative as one that was “likely to disappoint,” despite Tesla’s prowess in its self-driving software.
Analyst Ryan Brinkman has been skeptical of Tesla for some time, even stating that the company’s “sky-high valuation” was not in line with other stocks in the Magnificent Seven.
However, a recent visit to Texas that was made by JPMorgan analysts proved that the Robotaxi platform, despite being in its earliest stages, was enough for them to change their tune, at least slightly. The firm gave its props to the Tesla Robotaxi platform in a note by stating it was “certainly solid and felt like a safe ride at all times.”
It’s always nice to hear skeptics report positive experiences, especially as Robotaxi continues to improve and expand.
Tesla has already expanded its geofence for the Robotaxi suite in Austin, picking a very interesting shape for its newest boundaries:
Tesla’s Robotaxi expansion wasn’t a joke, it was a warning to competitors
As Robotaxi expands, Tesla is dealing with competition from Waymo, another self-driving ride-hailing service that is operating in Austin, among other areas. After Tesla’s expansion, which brought its accessible area to a greater size than Waymo’s, it responded by doubling its geofence.
Waymo’s expansion surpassed Tesla’s size considerably, and it seems Tesla is preparing to expand its geofence in the coming weeks.
Waymo responds to Tesla’s Robotaxi expansion in Austin with bold statement
The Robotaxi platform is not yet available to the public, but Tesla has been inviting more people to try it with every passing day. Currently, the map is roughly 42 square miles, but many believe Tesla is able to broaden this by a considerable margin whenever it decides.
Investor's Corner
Tesla needs to confront these concerns as its ‘wartime CEO’ returns: Wedbush
Tesla will report earnings for Q2 tomorrow. Here’s what Wedbush expects.

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is set to report its earnings for the second quarter of 2025 tomorrow, and although Wall Street firm Wedbush is bullish as the company appears to have its “wartime CEO” back, it is looking for answers to a few concerns investors could have moving forward.
The firm’s lead analyst on Tesla, Dan Ives, has kept a bullish sentiment regarding the stock, even as Musk’s focus seemed to be more on politics and less on the company.
However, Musk has recently returned to his past attitude, which is being completely devoted and dedicated to his companies. He even said he would be sleeping in his office and working seven days a week:
Back to working 7 days a week and sleeping in the office if my little kids are away https://t.co/77cc6sRCFZ
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 20, 2025
Nevertheless, Ives has continued to push suggestions forward about what Tesla should do, what its potential valuation could be in the coming years with autonomy, and how it will deal with the loss of the EV tax credit.
Tesla preps to expand Robotaxi geofence once again, answering Waymo
These questions are at the forefront of what Ives suggests Tesla should confront on tomorrow’s call, he wrote in a note to investors that was released on Tuesday morning:
“Clearly, losing the EV tax credits with the recent Beltway Bill will be a headwind to Tesla and competitors in the EV landscape looking ahead, and this cash cow will become less of the story (and FCF) in 2026. We would expect some directional guidance on this topic during the conference call. Importantly, we anticipate deliveries globally to rebound in 2H led by some improvement on the key China front with the Model Y refresh a catalyst.”
Ives and Wedbush believe the autonomy could be worth $1 trillion for Tesla, especially as it continues to expand throughout Austin and eventually to other territories.
In the near term, Ives expects Tesla to continue its path of returning to growth:
“While the company has seen significant weakness in China in previous quarters given the rising competitive landscape across EVs, Tesla saw a rebound in June with sales increasing for the first time in eight months reflecting higher demand for its updated Model Y as deliveries in the region are starting to slowly turn a corner with China representing the heart and lungs of the TSLA growth story. Despite seeing more low-cost models enter the market from Chinese OEMs like BYD, Nio, Xpeng, and others, the company’s recent updates to the Model Y spurred increased demand while the accelerated production ramp-up in Shanghai for this refresh cycle reflected TSLA’s ability to meet rising demand in the marquee region. If Musk continues to lead and remain in the driver’s seat at this pace, we believe Tesla is on a path to an accelerated growth path over the coming years with deliveries expected to ramp in the back-half of 2025 following the Model Y refresh cycle.”
Tesla will report earnings tomorrow at market close. Wedbush maintained its ‘Outperform’ rating and held its $500 price target.
Investor's Corner
Tesla (TSLA) Q2 2025 earnings call: What investors want to know

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is set to report its second-quarter 2025 financial results on Wednesday, July 23, after markets close. With this in mind, Tesla investors have aggregated their top questions for the company at its upcoming Q&A session.
The upcoming earnings report follows a mixed delivery quarter. Tesla produced over 410,000 vehicles and delivered more than 384,000 units globally. In the energy segment, Tesla deployed 9.6 GWh of storage products, continuing momentum for its Megapack business. Tesla’s vehicle sales are currently down year-over-year, though a good part of this was due to the Model Y changeover in the first quarter.
Following are Tesla investors’ top questions for management, as aggregated in Say.
- Can you give us some insight (into) how robotaxis have been performing so far and what rate you expect to expand in terms of vehicles, geofence, cities, and supervisors?
- What are the key technical and regulatory hurdles still remaining for unsupervised FSD to be available for personal use? Timeline?
- What specific factory tasks is Optimus currently performing, and what is the expected timeline for scaling production to enable external sales? How does Tesla envision Optimus contributing to revenue in the next 2–3 years?
- Can you provide an update on the development and production timeline for Tesla’s more affordable models? How will these models balance cost reduction with profitability, and what impact do you expect on demand in the current economic climate?
- When do you anticipate customer vehicles to receive unsupervised FSD?
- Are there any news for HW3 users getting retrofits or upgrades? Will they get HW4 or some future version of HW5?
- Have any meaningful Optimus milestones changed for this year or next, and will thousands of Optimus be performing tasks in Tesla factories by year-end?
- Will there be a new AI day to explain the advancements the Autopilot, Optimus, and Dojo/chip teams have made over the past several years? We still do not know much about HW4.
- Cybertruck ramp is now a year in, but sales have lagged other models. How are you thinking through boosting sales of such an incredible product?
- When will there be a new CEO compensation package presented and considered for the next stage of the company’s growth?
Tesla will release its Q2 update letter on its Investor Relations website after markets close on Wednesday. A live Q&A webcast with management will then follow at 4:30 p.m. CT (5:30 p.m. ET) to discuss the company’s performance and outlook.
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