Tesla and other companies are actively developing self-driving technologies and driverless ride-hailing platforms, and with President-elect Donald Trump’s transition team already focused on autonomous vehicles, the tech is highly expected to be a major theme in 2025.
According to a Reuters Breakingviews prediction report on Monday, Trump’s moves to minimize regulations surrounding autonomous vehicles and create a federal framework for the technology are expected to supercharge the industry—as increased competition emerges in the U.S. and beyond.
With Tesla CEO Elon Musk also set to play a large role in Trump’s administration, heading up the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), the company’s own developments in the sector could also stand to benefit substantially. Reuters also predicts that self-driving pilots could expand under the administration, especially as developers aim to increase the amount of data used to train their systems.
READ MORE ON SELF-DRIVING REGULATIONS: U.S. agency proposes rules for self-driving vehicle incident reporting
Last month, the Trump transition team said that it was already aiming to create a federal self-driving vehicle framework. Additionally, the team earlier this month was reported to be ditching federal requirements on automated driving tech crash reporting, coming as one example of the administration’s aims to streamline regulatory processes in the industry.
Internationally, the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) categorizes vehicle automation into five automation levels, which are generally adopted in conversations about robotaxis in the U.S. market as well. You can see these categories below, with Level 3 and above generally considered to be full automation, at least at times, while Level 2 and below are considered partial automation.
Credit: SAE International
According to the data firm Canalys, just 5.5 percent of vehicles sold this year have included Level 2 or more assistance features, such as cruise control and automated lane changes. By 2025, however, Citi research has suggested that models in China below 200,000 yuan (about $28,000) will have these features, playing a major role in consumer demand.
In China, at least 19 companies are currently testing fully autonomous vehicles, and Goldman Sachs expects the country to see as many as 90 percent of consumer sales to have features of Level 3 autonomy or greaterby 2040, compared to just 65 percent in the U.S.
While these technologies are emerging, McKinsey predicts that self-driving could become a $400 billion industry by 2035. Google parent company Alphabet runs Waymo, a Level 4 driverless ride-hailing service that already offers paid rides, while others, including Pony AI and Baidu also offer rentable self-driving vehicles in select areas.
BYD has invested $14 billion into self-driving, Toyota has around 1.7 trillion yen ($11.3 billion) going toward software, while Volkswagen has invested $700 million into China’s Xpeng Motors. Li Auto and Xiami are also considered potential competitors in these spaces, and 2025 could prove a big year for commercial self-driving hopefuls.
Tesla’s Supervised FSD program, Cybercab unveiled
Meanwhile, Tesla isn’t yet operating a paid ride-hailing service, though it gathers data through owner use of its Supervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) software. Tesla has touted the potential scalability of its Supervised FSD in the past, given that it’s available at least in some form in all of the company’s vehicles.
Musk has also regularly talked about a future in which owners of its vehicles could use an Unsupervised FSD to generate money by giving robotaxi rides while not normally in use.
On that theme, Tesla unveiled the Cybercab in October, a fully autonomous, two-seat vehicle with no pedals, set to eventually make it to the market as a driverless ride-hailing vehicle. It’s also set to be equipped with wireless charging and make use of an automated cleaning robot, offering top-to-bottom autonomy for owners.
MORE ON FSD SUPERVISED: Watch Tesla’s FSD v13.2 navigate away from park in a tricky situation
Tesla skeptics, Waymo’s driverless ride-hails, GM’s Cruise drives into the sunset
Despite the unveiling, some have shared skepticism around how long the vehicles could take to reach the market, especially given that production isn’t set to begin until 2026 with commercial deliveries aiming for “before 2027,” according to Musk during the October 10 “We, Robot” unveiling event.
On Monday, analyst Gary Black also predicted that fewer than 50 percent of Tesla owners would join the company’s robotaxi fleet, while a Guggenheim researcher in October said Tesla was “extremely unlikely” to reveal a credible path to robotaxi commercialization in the next 12 to 24 months.
Others like Waymo are some of the first companies operating paid driverless ride-hails, and the Google-run firm said in August that its robotaxis were already giving 100,000 paid self-driving rides per week. Meanwhile, General Motors (GM) announced this month that it will officially end funding for its commercial self-driving arm Cruise, after one of the company’s driverless vehicles last year ran over and pinned a pedestrian in San Francisco.
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Tesla robotaxi test details shared in recent report: 300 operators, safety tests, and more
Tesla has launched an initial robotaxi service for its employees in Austin and the San Francisco Bay Area.

During the Q1 2025 earnings call, Tesla executives reiterated the idea that the company will be launching a dedicated robotaxi service using its Full Self Driving (FSD) Unsupervised system this coming June.
A recent report from Insider, citing people reportedly familiar with the matter, has now provided a number of details about the preparations that Tesla has been making as it approaches its June target date.
Remote Operators
As noted by the publication, about 300 test operators have been driving through Austin city streets over the past few months using Teslas equipped with self-driving software. These efforts are reportedly part of “Project Rodeo.” Citing test drivers who are reportedly part of the program, Insider noted that Tesla’s tests involve accumulating critical miles. Test drivers are reportedly assigned to specific test routes, which include “critical” tracks where drivers are encouraged to avoid manual interventions, and “adversarial” tracks, which simulate tricky scenarios.
Tesla has launched an initial robotaxi service for its employees in Austin and the San Francisco Bay Area, though the vehicles only operate in limited areas. The vehicles also use safety drivers for now. However, Tesla has reportedly had discussions about using remote operators as safety drivers when the service goes live for consumers. Some test drivers have been moved into remote operator roles for this purpose, the publication’s sources claimed.
While Tesla is focusing on Austin and San Francisco for now, the company is reportedly also deploying test drivers in other key cities. These include Atlanta, GA, New York, NY, Seattle, WA, and Phoenix, AZ.
Safety Tests
Tesla reportedly held training events with local first responders as part of its preparations for its robotaxi service, Insider claimed, citing documents that it had obtained. As per the publication, Tesla had met with the city’s autonomous vehicle task force, which include members of the Austin Fire Department, back in December.
Back in March, Tesla reportedly participated in about six hours of testing with local first responders, which included members of the fire department and the police, at a close test track. Around 60 drivers and vehicles were reportedly used in the test to simulate real-world traffic scenarios.
Interestingly enough, a spokesperson from the Austin Police Department stated that Tesla did hold a testing day with emergency responders from Austin, Williamson County, as well as the Texas Department of Public Safety.
Reported Deadlines
While Tesla has been pretty open about its robotaxi service launching in Austin this June, the company is reportedly pursuing an aggressive June 1 deadline, at least internally. During meetings with Elon Musk, VP of AI software Ashok Elluswamy’s team reportedly informed the CEO that the company is on track to hit its internal deadline.
One of Insider’s sources, however, noted that the June 1 deadline is more aspirational or motivational. “A June 1 deadline makes a June 30 launch more likely,” the publication’s source noted.
News
Atty who refused to charge six-time Tesla vandal sparks controversy
Despite the multiple offenses, Moriarty opted to enter Adams into an adult diversion program instead.

Hennepin County Attorney Mary Moriarty, who made the decision not to charge 33-year-old vandal Dylan Bryan Adams after he keyed six Teslas around Minneapolis last month, has found herself in the middle of controversy.
The controversy came amidst her decision to press charges against a 19-year-old first-time vandal who keyed one vehicle at the White Castle in Brooklyn Park.
The Tesla Vandal
Moriarty’s decision not to charge Adams after he keyed six Teslas was met with widespread criticism. Adams’ actions resulted in more than $20,000 worth of damages, more than $10,000 of which was to a single vehicle, as noted in a New York Post report. Yet despite the multiple offenses, Moriarty opted to enter Adams into an adult diversion program instead.
The fact that Adams is a state employee who works for the Department of Human Services as a program consultant triggered allegations that his dismissal might be partly influenced by Gov. Tim Walz. Walz is a staunch critic of Musk, previously stating that the falling price of TSLA stock gives him a “boost” in the morning.
As noted in a report from The Minnesota Star Tribune, Moriarty’s decision was so controversial that she was asked about the matter on Wednesday. In response, the attorney argued that her office made the decision outside of any political consideration. “We try to make decisions without really looking at the political consequences. Can we always predict how a story will be portrayed in the media or what people will say? No,” Moriarty stated.
Actually Charged
As noted by the Tribune, Moriarty has made arguments around the fact that Adams was a first-time offender, even if he opted to deface six separate Teslas. But even this argument has become controversial since Moriarty recently charged a 19-year-old Robbinsdale woman with no criminal record with first-degree felony property damage after she allegedly keyed a co-worker’s car. The damage incurred by the 19-year-old woman was $7,000, substantially less than the over $20,000 damage that Adams’ actions have caused.
Cases surrounding felony first-degree property damage are fairly common, though they require the damage to be over $1,000. The 19-year-old’s damage to her co-worker’s car met this threshold. Adams’ damage to the six Teslas he vandalized also met this requirement.
When Moriarty was asked about her seemingly conflicting decisions, she noted that her office’s primary goal was to hold the person accountable for keying the vehicle and get restitution to the people affected. She also noted that her office tries to avoid convictions when possible since they could affect a person’s life. “Should we have treated this gentleman differently because it’s a political issue? We made this decision because it is in the best interest of public safety,” she noted.
News
Tesla faces emission credits tax in Washington state
House Bill 2077 taxes emissions credits, mainly hitting Tesla. Lawmakers expect $100M/year from the taxes.

Washington state lawmakers are advancing a bill that would tax Tesla’s emission credits, targeting profits under the state’s clean vehicle policy. Lawmakers who support the bill clarify that the Tesla credit tax is unrelated to Elon Musk.
HB 2077, introduced in mid-April, seeks to impose a 2% tax on emission credit sales and a 10% tax on banked credits. The bill primarily affects Tesla due to exemptions for companies with fewer credits.
In 2022, Washington’s Department of Ecology mandated that all new cars sold by 2035 be electric, hydrogen-fueled, or hybrids, with 35% compliance required by next year. Carmakers selling more gas-powered vehicles can buy credits from companies like Tesla, which sells only electric vehicles.
A legislative fiscal analysis projects taxes on those credits would generate $78 million in the 2025-27 biennium and $100 million annually thereafter. About 70% of the taxes will be allocated to the state’s general funds, and the rest will help expand electric car infrastructure.
HB 2077 passed the state House eight days after its introduction and awaits a Senate Ways and Means Committee vote on Friday. At a House Finance Committee hearing, supporters, including union and social service advocates, argued the tax would prevent cuts to state services.
House Majority Leader Joe Fitzgibbon emphasized its necessity amid frozen federal EV infrastructure funds. “We didn’t have a budget crisis until this year. And we didn’t have the federal government revoking huge amounts of federal dollars for EV infrastructure,” he said.
Tesla’s lobbyist, Jeff Gombosky, countered that the proposal “runs counter to the intent” of the state’s zero-emission policy. Rivian’s lobbyist, Troy Nichols, noted a “modest” impact on his company but warned it could undermine the EV mandate. Kate White Tudor of the Natural Resources Defense Council expressed concerns, stating, “We worry it sets a dubious precedent.”
Fitzgibbon defended the tax, noting Tesla’s dominant credit stockpile makes it “one outlier” that is “very profitable.” “That’s the kind of thing legislators take an interest in,” he said. “Is it serving the interest of the public for this asset to be untaxed?”
With the legislative session nearing its end, the bill remains a key focus in budget talks in Washington.
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