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Tesla pushes higher as investors see confidence in ability to scale Model 3 production

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Tesla shares (NASDAQ:TSLA) have continued to rise, rallying as high as 3.96% and trading at $372.68 per share on Monday’s intraday amid investors’ improved sentiment on the Elon Musk-led company’s capability to scale Model 3 production and a new, optimistic outlook from Wall Street analysts.

Tesla stock has seen a meteoric rise since the company held its 2018 Annual Shareholder Meeting. Since then, Tesla’s shares had shot to levels that have not been seen since September 2017 — the month when Tesla reached its all-time high of $385.00 per share. As of writing, Tesla stock has risen 17.78% year-to-date, beating the S&P 500, which has gained 3.3% year-to-date so far. Tesla shorts have taken a beating as well, with short-sellers losing over $2 billion in  mark-to-market losses as of last Wednesday. 

Part of the improvement in investor sentiment lies in the fact that since the second quarter began, Tesla started making real progress with its capability to scale the production of the Model 3. The Model 3 has been haunting Tesla for almost a year now, with the vehicle’s production numbers always falling below the company’s target every quarter. At the end of Q1 2018, however, Tesla was only a few hundred Model 3 short from its goal. Since then, CEO Elon Musk and the Tesla team have buckled down to overcome the compact electric car’s bottlenecks in both Fremont and at Gigafactory 1. 

After production shutdowns that made way for more robots to build even more cars, a restructuring that got rid of redundancies in its operations, the opening of orders for the Model 3 Performance and Dual Motor AWD, as well as the completion of another Model 3 assembly line in three weeks, Tesla finally seems to be in its element with the compact electric car’s manufacturing. With Musk’s tweet last Saturday featuring the first Model 3 Performance Dual Motor being rolled off an assembly line at a tent outside the main Fremont factory, it was evident that Tesla has a clear plan to scale the production of the compact electric car to 5,000 a week before the end of the second quarter. 

The first Model 3 Performance Dual Motor rolls off the assembly line. [Credit: Elon Musk/Twitter]

In a note to clients on Monday, Instinet analysts wrote that Tesla would likely hit a production rate of 5,000 Model 3 per week by the end of Q2 2018. The analysts, led by Romit Shah, stated, however, that Tesla might not be able to attain a sustained production output until some point in Q3 2018. Nevertheless, Shah expects Tesla to hit Elon Musk’s goal of achieving profitability at some point in Q3 2018 or Q4 2018.

“We see continued, meaningful progress on Model 3 production alongside our expectation for improved gross margins. This should offer Tesla a chance to achieve its financial targets in 2H18 (such as cash flow positivity and GAAP profitability),” the analysts wrote.

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As of writing, Tesla shares are trading up 2.89% at $368.53 per share.

Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.

Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Investor's Corner

Financial Times retracts report on Tesla’s alleged shady accounting

“Turns out FT can’t do finance,” Tesla CEO Elon Musk quipped on X.

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Credit: Tesla Asia/X

The Financial Times has issued a retraction for an article it recently published that accused the electric vehicle maker of shady accounting practices.

The FT’s retraction has been appreciated by the electric vehicle community in social media, though many highlighted the fact that the publication’s initial erroneous allegations have already been spread across numerous other media outlets.

The Allegations

In an article published on March 19, the Financial Times pointed out that if one were to compare “Tesla’s capital expenditure in the last six months of 2024 to its valuation of the assets that money was spent on,” “$1.4 billion appears to have gone astray.”

The FT article highlighted that Tesla reported spending $6.3 billion on “purchases of property and equipment excluding finance leases, net of sales” in the second half of 2024. However, in that period, the company’s property, plant, and equipment only rose by $4.9 billion. As noted by members of the r/Accounting subreddit, this appeared to be the basis of the FT‘s article, which seemed careless at best.

Unfortunately, the publication’s allegations were quickly echoed by other news outlets, many of which proceeded to accuse Tesla of implementing shady accounting practices.

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The Retraction

In its retraction, the Financial Times explained that Tesla’s payments for assets already purchased and the possible disposal of depreciated property could help explain the alleged discrepancy in the company’s numbers. With these in consideration, the publication noted that the “crack we’re left with at Tesla is now small enough — just under half a billion dollars — to be filled with some combination of foreign exchange movements, non-material asset write-offs, or the sale of machinery or equipment close to its not-fully depreciated value.”

“As we sound the Alphaville bugle while lowering this particular red flag, one unavoidable conclusion is that at a certain point it’s necessary to trust the auditor’s judgment,” the publication noted.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has responded to the Financial Times‘ retraction, commenting, “Turns out FT can’t do finance” in a post on social media platform X.

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Canaccord reaffirms Tesla’s price target of $404 after Giga Texas visit

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Credit: Tesla Asia/X

Canaccord Genuity reaffirmed its price target of $404 for Tesla after a visit to Gigafactory Texas. The investment firm sees an optimistic future for Tesla in the long term despite near-term headwinds.

Canaccord analysts reiterated its “Buy” rating for TSLA stock and revised Tesla’s Q1 2025 delivery estimates from ~331,000 vehicles to ~362,000 units. The firm’s first-quarter delivery estimates for Tesla reveal its optimistic take on the company’s future, even though it is still below the consensus estimate of ~417,000 vehicles.

“Our estimate is informed by our opinion that some consumers are delaying vehicle purchases to access the new Model Y and 4Q24 earnings call commentary regarding Model Y-related factory retooling limiting production…We wonder whether purchase decision delays and production limitations are being misinterpreted as halted overall momentum for Tesla. While we do suspect there has been some macroeconomic/brand impact, we, again, do estimate 1Q25 deliveries are mostly being impacted by supply constraints–as well as some demand factors,” Canaccord Genuity noted.

Canaccord analysts recently visited Tesla Giga Texas and left with optimism for the American electric vehicle (EV) maker.

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“It’s hard not to be impressed with how future-forward Tesla is–whether it’s vehicle design or manufacturing. Consistently rethinking the status quo,” Canaccord Genuity analysts commented.

Analysts highlighted Tesla’s progress with Full Self-Driving, specifically version 13.2.8. They noted that Tesla’s unboxed manufacturing strategy would boost production efficiencies. Canaccord Genuity analysts also mentioned that Tesla’s robotaxi services will launch in Austin in the summer.

“For investors with duration and grit, there is a silver-linings playbook,” the Canaccord Genuity analysts concluded.

Canaccord Genuity reflects Elon Musk’s recent stock market advice during the Tesla All-Hands keynote. Musk advised investors to invest in companies with products they love, highlighting that Tesla has a few great products and will continue to launch more.

“Tesla stock goes up and goes down, but actually, it’s still the same company,” Musk noted.

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Tesla stock rebounds and Tim Walz backtracks: ‘I was making a joke’

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Credit: @TeslaFrenzy/X

Tesla stock rebounded over 20 percent in the past five trading days, and, coincidentally, the boost came just after Tim Walz said he gets a boost from watching the automaker’s shares fall.

Although Walz’s pushback against Tesla stock mostly comes from his evident distaste for CEO Elon Musk, who has joined President Donald Trump’s team as the head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), it seems he might not have realized the EV maker’s shares make up a portion of his state’s pension fund.

This was something Shark Tank’s Kevin O’Leary mentioned last week after Walz’s comments. However, now that Tesla shares are rising once again, Walz is backtracking by saying that his comment from last week was his attempt at humor.

Walz said:

“I have to be careful about being a smartass. I was making a joke. These people have no sense of humor.”

Tesla shares have rebounded nicely since a substantial drop so far this year.

Although the stock is still down about 28 percent this year, things are looking better for the company as it now shifts its focus to the release of several affordable models, the ramp of the new Model Y “Juniper,” the release of the Cybercab and Robotaxi platform in Texas and California, and other potential catalysts like the Optimus robot.

Tesla aiming to produce first “legion” of Optimus robots this 2025

Last week’s All-Hands meeting from Tesla was publicly broadcast on X and seemed to be the response many investors were hoping for as questions started to seep in regarding Musk’s commitment to the company.

While his attention seems to be on solving government spending and eliminating corruption, it is evident Musk is still paying attention to what is going on at Tesla.

Shares are up over 10 percent at 1:05 p.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $274.

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